Decision support system for mass dispensing of medications for infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks

A simulation and decision support system, RealOpt^©, for planning large-scale emergency dispensing clinics to respond to biological threats and infectious disease outbreaks is described. The system allows public health administrators to investigate clinic design and staffing scenarios quickly. RealOpt^© incorporates efficient optimization technology seamlessly interfaced with a simulation module. The system's correctness and computational advantage are validated via comparisons against simulation runs of the same model developed on a commercial system. Simulation studies to explore facility layout and staffing scenarios for smallpox vaccination and for an actual anthrax-treatment dispensing exercise and post event analysis are presented. The system produces results consistent with the model built on the commercial system, but requires only a fraction of the computational time. Each smallpox scenario runs within 1 CPU minute on RealOpt^©, versus run times of over 5–10 h on the commercial system. The system's fast computational time enables its use in large-scale studies, in particular an anthrax response planning exercise involving a county with 864,000 households. The computational effort required for this exercise was roughly 30 min for all scenarios considered, demonstrating that RealOpt^© offers a very promising avenue for pursuing a comprehensive investigation involving a more diverse set of scenarios, and justifying work towards development of a robust system that can be widely deployed for use by state, local, and tribal health practitioners. Using our staff allocation and assignments for the Anthrax field exercise, DeKalb county achieved the highest throughput among all counties that simultaneously conducted the same scale of Anthrax exercise at various locations, with labor usage at or below the other counties. Indeed, DeKalb exceeded the targeted number of households, and it processed 50% more individuals compared to the second place county. None of the other counties achieved the targeted number of households. The external evaluators commented that DeKalb produced the most efficient floor plan (with no path crossing), the most cost-effective dispensing (lowest labor/throughput value), and the smoothest operations (shortest average wait time, average queue length, equalized utilization rate). The study proves that even without historical data, using our system one can plan ahead and be able to wisely estimate the required labor resources. The exercise also revealed many areas that need attention during the operations planning and design of dispensing centers. The type of disaster being confronted (e.g., biological attack, infectious disease outbreak, or a natural disaster) also dictates different design considerations with respect to the dispensing clinic, facility locations, dispensing and backup strategies, and level of security protection. Depending on the situation, backup plans will be different, and the level of security and military personnel, as well as the number of healthcare workers required, will vary. In summary, the study shows that a real-time decision support system is viable through careful design of a stand-alone simulator coupled with powerful tailor-designed optimization solvers. The flexibility of performing empirical tests quickly means the system is amenable for use in training and preparation, and for strategic planning before and during an emergency situation. The system facilitates analysis of “what-if'' scenarios, and serves as an invaluable tool for operational planning and dynamic on-the-fly reconfigurations of large-scale emergency dispensing clinics. It also allows for “virtual field exercises” to be performed on the decision support system, offering insight into operations flow and bottlenecks when mass dispensing is required for a region with a large population. The system, designed in modular form with a flexible implementation, enables future expansion and modification regarding emergency center design with respect to treatment for different biological threats or disease outbreaks. Working with emergency response departments, further fine-tuning and development of the system will be made to address different biological attacks and infectious disease outbreaks, and to ensure its practicality and usability.     

Regular population monotonic allocation schemes

The paper introduces a refinement of the notion of population monotonic allocation scheme, called regular population monotonic allocation scheme (regularpmas). This refinement is based on economic situations in which players may have to select new partners from a set of potential players and in which there exist certain capacity constraints. A sufficient condition for the existence of a regularpmas is given. For the class of games with regularpmas, we prove that the core coincides with the Davis and Maschler and the Mas-Colell bargaining sets.     

Approximation algorithms for dynamic resource allocation

We consider a problem of allocating limited quantities of M types of resources among N independent activities that evolve over T epochs. In each epoch, we assign to each activity a task which consumes resources, generates utility, and determines the subsequent state of the activity. We study the complexity of, and approximation algorithms for, maximizing average utility.     

基于MPEG-4的视频流式传输系统及动态带宽分配方法

提出了一个基于MPEG 4精细可分级编码技术的视频流式传输系统。介绍了系统中主要模块的作用,并重点研究了速率控制模块。速率控制模块采用了适合视频流式传输的动态带宽分配方法。它可以根据实时的网络通道波动状况来动态调整滑动参数,以适应网络波动和高效地利用网络的有限资源。实验结果表明,动态带宽分配方法在动态带宽波动条件下不仅可以使相邻帧间的视频质量更加平滑,而且可以大大提高解码视频图像的总体质量,也就是说可同时改善解码视频的主客观性能。     

Allocating electricity transmission costs through tracing: a game-theoretic rationale

Tracing is a method of assigning flows in an electricity network to particular generators and loads, assuming perfect mixing at each node. It can be used to assign costs to transmission users. We show that the resulting allocation is equal to the Shapley value of an equivalent co-operative game.     

基于风险-均值分析的供应商选择与订单分配集成优化模型与求解

针对不确定环境下具有不同供应合约的供应商选择与订单分配问题,本文构建了基于风险-均值分析的模糊两阶段多周期集成优化模型。与传统的该问题研究并未充分考虑供应商选择与订单分配两阶段决策的交互影响不同,在该模型中,第一阶段供应商选择的评价目标依赖于后期实际运营中的订单分配决策;并考虑未来需求和实际运营成本的不确定性,引入在险价值和期望值两种决策准则对供应商选择方案的绩效进行评价。提出了该模型的分析求解方法,在险价值得以精确评估,期望值被控制在确定的误差范围内,并可以达到足够的精度要求。     

On the population monotonicity of independent set games

An independent set game is a cooperative game dealing with profit sharing in the maximum independent set problem. A population monotonic allocation scheme is a rule specifying how to share the profit of each coalition among its participants such that every participant is better off when the coalition expands. In this paper, we provide a necessary and sufficient characterization for independent set games admitting population monotonic allocation schemes. Moreover, our characterization can be verified efficiently.     

煤炭码头船货匹配下泊位动态分配多目标优化模型及算法

本文针对输出型煤炭码头船货匹配下泊位动态分配问题,构建了堆场-取装线-泊位-船舶联合分配优化数学模型,并设计了采用仿真推演策略解码的遗传算法求解。首先,综合考虑船舶、泊位、堆场、取装线、煤种、航道开放时间和装船作业规则等要素,以船舶在港时间最短和作业效率最大为目标建立了相应的多约束多目标优化模型。然后,综合多目标优化、遗传算法以及仿真推演技术,设计了相应的遗传算法求解,包括:组合式编码、采用仿真推演策略的解码方法,追加了具有合法性检查的染色体生成算法,设计了采用多种策略的遗传操作等。最后实例表明,本算法的执行效率高而且优化效果好。     

Estimating market shares in each market segment using the information entropy concept

Sales data of a certain product for the various competitors are usually available at the aggregate level. However these data give no clue to the heterogeneities in the sales pattern across different market segments. Heterogeneities are caused by different purchasing behavior in each market segment; as a purchaser in a segment will be attracted to the attributes of the product most important to that segment. This concept can be formalized via a simple attraction model that utilizes an elasticity measure for each quality or price attribute [G.S. Carpenter, L.G. Cooper, D.M. Hanssens, D.F. Midgley, Modeling asymmetric competition, Marketing Science 7 (4) (1998) 393–412]. Assessment of these elasticities is not difficult since customer response – in each market segment – to perception of quality and price is tracked by most firms [J. Ross, D. Georgoff, A survey of productive and quality issues in manufacturing. The state of the industry, Industrial Management 3 (5) (1991) 22–25]. This paper attempts to formulate a generic framework based on the information entropy concept that utilizes such an attraction model to estimate competitors’ sales in each market segment.     

Buffer sizing in multi-product multi-reactor batch processes: Impact of allocation and campaign sizing policies

This paper studies the impact of management policies, such as product allocation and campaign sizing, on the required size of the finished goods inventories in a multi-product multi-reactor batch process. Demand, setup and batch processing times for these products are assumed to be stochastic, and the inventory buffer for every product type needs to be such that target customer service levels are met. To perform this analysis, we develop a queueing model that allows us to explicitly estimate service levels as a function of the buffer size, and the allocation/campaign sizing policies. This model can be used to evaluate the service level given an existing buffer configuration, as well as to determine the buffer sizes required across products to meet a pre-specified service level. It also allows us to formulate a number of insights into how product allocation decisions and campaign planning policies affect buffer sizing decisions in symmetric production systems.